Methodology

How Holder Churn CRM interprets Birdeye data

The MVP uses deterministic, explainable rules instead of fake ML. Every complex metric should be inspectable and source-backed.

Data limitations are shown by design.

Holder tracking is based on Birdeye top-holder snapshots. A missing wallet means likely exited or dropped below the tracked threshold. Campaign retention needs enough historical snapshots, and wallet enrichment is selective to stay under the safe API budget.

Holder Churn

Wallets missing from the current tracked holder snapshot are labeled likely exited or dropped below tracked threshold. The app avoids claiming full exits when only top-holder snapshots are available.

Holder Health

A transparent heuristic combines retention stability, whale confidence, distribution health, returning activity, new holder quality, churn penalty, and security context when available.

Whale Confidence

Starts at 50, adds points for whale accumulation, subtracts points for whale reduction, and clamps to 0-100.

Distribution Risk

Top 10 concentration below 25% is low risk, 25-50% is medium, and 50% or above is high.

Campaign Impact

Campaign reports compare before and after snapshots. If history is insufficient, live mode shows Needs more snapshots instead of invented retention.

Birdeye Dependency

Birdeye supplies holders, distribution, transfers, price stats, wallet context, and token security so this app can focus on retention intelligence and action.